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This East Regional appears to be more open than others in this tournament (though who really knows with this thing) – Purdue and Marquette have nearly-even odds to reach the Final Four, while a couple of blue bloods in Duke and Kentucky are lurking around the corner. One of the nation’s premier defensive teams in Tennessee is here, plus don’t forget about one of the Big 12’s best, Kansas State. This should be an entertaining region for neutrals and an excruciating one for partisans, minus fans of the one lucky survivor.
Odds-On Favorite: 1 Purdue (+320)
Other Favorites: 2 Marquette (+370), 4 Tennessee (+600)
The Challengers: 5 Duke (+750), 6 Kentucky (+850), 3 Kansas State (+1100)
The Case for the Favorites
1 Purdue
Zach Edey is the truth.
The best player in the regular season, Edey is a machine that cannot be stopped. Nobody has managed to hold him to a single-digit scoring output yet this campaign, and he’s registered double-doubles in more than 78 percent of the games he’s played in. He gets to the line effectively, he’s a behemoth on the defensive end, and he’s a good passer. Edey tops the country in player efficiency rating (40.3), offensive win shares (6.1), and overall win shares (8.5). In case you didn’t know, that’s absolutely ridiculous. This guy is something else, all 7-foot-4 of him.
In large part because of Edey, Purdue dominates on the boards and is very efficient from inside the arc. But the Boilermakers aren’t all their big man. This team rarely turns the ball over – a crucial component to any March Madness run – and barely allows opponents opportunities at the free-throw line. Purdue smothers you offensive and defensively, both with Edey but as a team, too; freshmen guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith are wise beyond their years and run a tight ship on Purdue’s perimeter.
2 Marquette
Marquette boasts one of the deadliest offenses in college basketball. It ranks in the top-15 nationally in field-goal percentage (48.74) and gets up tons of shots – that’s a big part of why the Golden Eagles average nearly 80 points per contest.
Two other causes for Marquette’s scoring are assists and steals. This is one of the best teams in the country at sharing the ball, and that begins with Tyler Kolek. Currently second in Division I in assists per game (7.9), the junior guard is one of the nation’s premier passers. His orchestration of Shaka Smart’s offense is a big reason why the Golden Eagles are a serious Final Four threat.
Marquette doesn’t play at a crazy tempo, but it does love to get into passing lanes, force steals, and get out on the other end for easy baskets. The Golden Eagles score the second-most fastbreak points per game on average (16.35) and are top 10 in college basketball in steals per game (9.5), too. If you’re not careful with the ball, Marquette will make you pay dearly.
4 Tennessee
Everything begins with defense in Knoxville. Tennessee is second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and for good reason. The Vols offer opponents the worst field-goal percentage in the country (36.36), the worst three-point percentage in the nation (25.5), and give up the third-fewest points of anyone in Division I (57.5). Tennessee’s opponents have crossed the 70-point mark just six times this season. This team even held Alabama to 59 in mid-February.
Tennessee is solid offensively but nothing great. However, it is excellent on the offensive glass, and that’s an important way for this team to generate points. The Vols are second in the SEC in offensive rebounds per outing (13.0), and it comes from a full team effort. There is not one player on this team that takes on the sole responsibility of rebounding – Tennessee does it as a team, which makes sense for a squad that defends so well as a unit, too.
Important to note: without Zakai Zeigler, who is out for the season with a torn ACL, Tennessee is demonstrably worse on both sides of the ball.
Dark Horse to Monitor: 5 Duke
It’s a tale as old as time. A young team full of highly-touted freshmen with a couple of veterans sprinkled in is given a top-10 preseason ranking. The team takes a while to put it together, fitting in a collection of pieces with huge expectations but little experience at the Division I level, and takes heat for it throughout the regular season. Then by the time March rolls around, the talent shines through, everything seems to come together, and the team is underseeded in the tournament because of its previous results. Then everyone else in its region has to face its wrath.
This Duke team fits that description perfectly. The Blue Devils struggled at times this season, going 4-4 during a stretch from mid-December well into January. Despite having three of the top-four ranked recruits from the Class of 2022 on the roster, it wasn’t translating.
But it is now. Kyle Filipowski, who has been excellent for most of the season, has really turned it on since the final regular season game against North Carolina. In the ACC Tournament, he averaged nearly 20 points per game and recorded two double-doubles – he seems to be in unstoppable form at the most perfect time, as does his entire team, who have been doing more lately to chip in on the scoreboard and otherwise.
Duke uses its length and athleticism to force opponents into bad and difficult shots, then uses that same length and athleticism to get the rebound. The Blue Devils are one of the nation’s best on the glass, with Filipowski, Ryan Young, and Dereck Lively II as the main culprits. They also shoot it well from the free-throw line (77 percent). The ACC Tournament champs aren’t your typical No. 5 seed.
Cinderella Candidate: 9 FAU
This is probably the best team in the country that you’ve never watched, and I don’t blame you too much – FAU mostly wrecked everyone on its schedule, because it was a lot better than the majority of its opponents. But if you missed out on the Owls in the regular season, Dusty May’s team might have something fun in store for you in the NCAA Tournament.
FAU is led by a group of sophomores who all score, rebound, and defend at a high level: Johnell Davis (13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds per game), Alijah Martin (13.2 points, 5.4 rebounds per game), Vlad Goldin (10.6 points, 6.4 rebounds per game), and Nick Boyd (9.1 points, 4.1 rebounds per game). This stable of sophomores represents what diamond-in-the-rough recruiting can do for a program.
The Owls hit on most of the metrics I look for in a team to have a deep tournament run. They shoot efficiently (47.2 percent from the field, 37.2 percent from three), take good care of the ball (11.8 turnovers per contest), and rebound well (first in C-USA in defensive rebounds per outing). FAU is in the top 40 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, a testament to the balance this squad possesses. In March, it’s important to not be too lopsided one way, or else you will be exploited. Plus, unlike most teams from mid-major and small-major conferences, FAU has size, with Goldin measuring in at 7-foot-1, which causes matchup issues against most opponents.
Elite Eight Prediction: 1 Purdue vs 2 Marquette
I don’t want to go chalk, but I just can’t pick against Edey. He’s the best player in the country by a good margin. He can do it all, and the supporting cast around him is impressive, too. Purdue is one of the few teams in the country that ranks in the top 30 of KenPom’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, which is normally a good way to determine if a team is a serious title contender or not, and this balance makes it hard for me to pick against it. The Boilermakers seem to find new ways to fall on their face every March, and Duke and all of its talent appear to be peaking at the right time. But I simply cannot ignore all the advantages this Purdue team seems to have, so perhaps against my better judgment, I’m going with the No. 1 seed.
Marquette’s offense is simply too much for anyone in the bottom half of the East Regional to handle. Kansas State has the best defense of the bunch, but if the Golden Eagles and Wildcats were to meet, I fear that KSU doesn’t have enough inside to stop Marquette from feasting from within the arc. Plus, Kansas State’s offense doesn’t convince me – poor decisions seem to plague it at times, and that can hamper efficiency. Plus, Marquette showed serious defensive improvement in the Big East Tournament. Considering their current tear that dates back to mid-February, I’m going with the Golden Eagles in the bottom half of this region.
Final Four Representative: 1 Purdue
Marquette’s defense, free-throw shooting, and rebounding concern me, especially against an opponent like Purdue. The Golden Eagles don’t excel in any of those categories, meaning they’re heavily reliant on their ability to shoot and score from the field. Meanwhile, Purdue can hurt you in so many different ways, even when it doesn’t have the ball.
Not that many teams do, but the Golden Eagles really don’t have anyone to guard Edey. I’d expect him to lock down the painted area on offense and defense, making it very difficult for Marquette to get much of anything going at the rim. The Golden Eagles also feast on steals and turning those into fastbreak points, but the Boilermakers have some of the most sure-handed guards around and have committed more than 12 turnovers in just eight games all season and haven’t given the ball away more than 17 times in any single contest. This strikes me as an ideal matchup for the Boilermakers and one that gets them to their first Final Four since 1980.
