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Alabama, the tournament’s No. 1-overall seed, headlines the South Regional, which will play its Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Louisville, Kentucky, on March 24 and 26, respectively. The Crimson Tide are the favorites to get through and reach the Final Four, but Pac-12 Tournament champs Arizona and 2021 national-title winners Baylor might have other plans.
Odds-On Favorite: 1 Alabama (+190)
Other Favorites: 2 Arizona (+440), 3 Baylor (+600)
The Challengers: 6 Creighton (+800), 4 Virginia (+1200), 5 San Diego State (+1500), 9 West Virginia (+2000)
The Cases for the Favorites
1 Alabama
On the court, there isn’t much to dislike about Alabama. This team grinds opponents down with unrelenting defensive pressure and spot-on rotations, then runs them out of the gym with its speed. The Crimson Tide are the No. 1 overall seed for a reason.
Brandon Miller has been on an absolute tear these last few weeks. Over the last eight games, Miller is averaging 22.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per contest, all while getting it done on the defensive end, too. Even when Alabama has lost, he’s still had double-doubles. Good luck to anyone in stopping this freshman.
Alabama’s insistence on avoiding mid-range jumpers means it takes only the most-efficient looks, and with the amount this team drives to the tin, it draws so many fouls. The Crimson Tide are fifth in Division I in average free-throw attempts per game (23.7), a contributing factor to their 82.2 points per outing average.
2 Arizona
Between 6-foot-11 Azuolas Tubelis and 7-footer Oumar Ballo, Arizona has enough size to match up with anybody in the country. Add another 7-footer in Henri Veesaar into the rotation, and you can play above the clouds for all 40 minutes. Tubelis and Ballo are averaging a combined 34 points and 17.8 rebounds per game, and both present huge issues for opposing offenses. The Wildcats offer some horrific matchup nightmares with their size and skill around the rim.
This is an outstanding shooting team. From the field, Arizona connects at the fifth-best rate in college basketball (49.6 percent), and its 38.2-percent mark from deep is the best in the Pac-12. So, not only do opposing defenses have to worry about giants down low, they also have to deal with a potent perimeter attack.
With this team’s size, shooting, and rebounding ability, it will not be an easy out for anybody. Arizona is not without weakness – it could foul less and defend the three-point line better – but its lineup and offensive output are as elite as it gets.
3 Baylor
The Bears have some guys who have been around the block. Adam Flagler, LJ Cryer, Flo Thamba, and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua were all on the national championship team from two seasons ago, and experience can be key to a Final Four run in a tournament that requires unending composure.
They also play some incredible offense. Baylor is No. 2 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, averaging 77.2 points per game on just 69.8 possessions per night. Flagler and Cryer are the biggest reasons for this efficient attack. Both are excellent at getting in the lane and finishing at the rim or kicking to an open shooter, and both are excellent at being that shooter. Freshman Keyonte George isn’t quite as sure-handed, but he can really fill it up on a good night.
Baylor has one of the scariest backcourts college basketball has to offer.
My Dark Horse to Monitor: 6 Creighton
Creighton is vastly underseeded relative to everything the metrics say about it. This team is No. 13 overall in KenPom and in the top 30 for both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which is a sign of a genuine national championship contender. Creighton is the sleeper to take the South Region’s Final Four spot.
Ryan Kalkbrenner is this team’s greatest weapon. The two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Kalkbrenner is blocking 2.2 shots per game and altering many more. His 7-foot frame gives him a height advantage over nearly everybody – he makes it very difficult for opponents to wrestle control of the painted area, especially when combined with the fantastic stable of rebounders Creighton has otherwise. You won’t find many teams with better-rebounding guards than the Bluejays, which means opponents usually experience one-and-done possessions.
Cinderella Candidate: 12 Charleston
This is not a slight at San Diego State nor Virginia, but dare I say that Charleston has a relatively-friendly path to the Sweet 16?
The Cougars and Aztecs play polar-opposite tempos, and if Charleston is able to speed up the Mountain West champs and open the game wide, it could be tough for San Diego State to score enough to escape the upset bid. San Diego State does play very efficiently on offensive, but could it keep up in a high-possession contest? Virginia would be the same story. Charleston doesn’t shoot it especially well from deep, but what it does do is take a ton of attempts from beyond the arc, then crash the offensive glass hard. The Cougars are fourth in Division I in offensive rebounds per game (13.65). Neither the Aztecs nor the Cavaliers are especially effective on the boards.
Elite Eight Prediction: 1 Alabama vs 6 Creighton
I don’t see much resistance for Alabama prior to the Elite Eight. I think the Crimson Tide would run circles around Virginia and beat San Diego State, though the Aztecs would provide more of a fight, plus I view Charleston as a legitimate threat to claim that Sweet 16 spot. West Virginia is one of the few teams in the country that could theoretically keep up with Alabama’s scoring, but it’s a tall order to ask the Mountaineers to defend this attack. Alabama gets to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2004.
Creighton’s path to the Elite Eight will be more convoluted. First, a North Carolina State team that’s outside of the top 80 in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Then, likely a meeting with Baylor, a team that’s lost four of its last six and allows opponents to shoot 53.3 percent from inside the arc (Kalkbrenner is salivating at that). Finally, Arizona would be a serious test for the Bluejays, but the Wildcats’ deficiencies defending the three-point line can be very bad if Trey Alexander (44 percent) and any of Creighton’s other sharpshooters catch fire. Plus, Creighton has Kalkbrenner, the rare player who can serve as a foil to Arizona’s trees. This may sound a bit outlandish on its face, but the numbers do point to the Bluejays as a real threat to the Final Four. You should not take this team lightly.
Final Four Representative: 1 Alabama
I’ve felt as though Alabama was the best team in the country for months now. This isn’t an earth-shattering revelation, but I haven’t seen much to disprove my theory since its conjuring, so I’m not backing down now.
I said a lot of nice things about Creighton, but Alabama is simply too much. Kalkbrenner would make it harder for the Crimson Tide to do what they want around the rim, but even if he seriously walls up down there, Alabama can shoot over him from beyond the arc. Bama beats the Bluejays and gets to the program’s first-ever Final Four.
