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Optimism used to be hard to come by in Motor City but lately, things are looking up. 15 weeks into the 2022 NFL season, the Detroit Lions are 7-7 overall and on a six-game win streak, with what looks like a strong matchup on the road ahead against a young, struggling Panthers team.
On paper, the Lions are getting three points as a road favorite on the opening line. Is that a good enough bet for the average Detroit fan to risk a little extra pocket cash with confidence? Here’s what the numbers have to say about Detroit vs. Carolina in Week 16.
Let’s compare the Lions’ and Panthers’ football performance YTD using three common indicators: Offensive Red Zone Efficiency, Turnover Margin, and Time of Possession.
O Red Zone Efficiency
Detroit’s red zone efficiency is 70.59% (3rd overall in the NFL and up 24% vs 2021). Carolina’s is 51.35% (22nd overall and down 2% vs 2021). Strangely, the Lions didn’t need to rely on their excellent Red Zone O on the road to the Jets last week, as the only offensive TD came from 51 yards out. CAR scored on just one Red Zone try against PIT at Home last week (33%) and has struggled to get close to the end zone much at all since Christian McAffrey left town for SFO.
Turnover Margin
Detroit is +.3 overall in turnover margin per game (tied for 6th) and +1.3 the last 3 games, (tied for 2nd best in that time). CAR is -.1 overall (tied for 19th) and +1.0 in their last 3 games (tied for 3rd best in the NFL). Jared Goff has thrown 8 TD and 0 INTs in his last 5 games. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Sam Darnold has tossed 2 TDs vs 1 INT in limited action over the last 3 weeks.
Time of Possession
Detroit controls the clock 52.49% as an away team, and 54.22% away vs NYJ last week. Carolina owns 47.36% ToP as the home team but recorded just 39.69% (about 24 minutes ToP) at home to the Steelers last week. That’s enough of a ToP differential for the Lions to command a good handful of extra offensive plays (they currently average .41 points per play in 2022, 8th in the NFL).
Bonus Fact
The Panthers are 0-9 in their last 9 December games, while the Lions have now won ATS 7 weeks in a row
Using the above indicators, the Lions are half a turnover and at least one possession better than the Panthers; they are also a much hotter team. With that extra possession, the Lions should be good for perhaps 5-7 more plays than the Panthers, which translates to two to three additional points, or perhaps more given the Lions’ robust RZ%.
The Pick
With the line currently sitting at -3.0 for the ATS hero Lions, their hot streak and strong recent showing vs the Jets as a road favorite, and Carolina’s weak performance at home vs the Steelers in recent memory, the numbers say that Detroit fans can feel good about taking the Lions on the road ATS versus the Panthers on Week 16.
