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Diego Pavia will lead the New Mexico State Aggies (7-3) into their matchup against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-4) at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, on Saturday at 3:30 PM ET.
The Aggies are underdogs, but by less than a touchdown (+4.5), versus the Hilltoppers (with an over/under of 54 points).
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Game Info for Western Kentucky vs. New Mexico State
- Game Day: Saturday, November 11, 2023
- Game Time: 3:30 PM ET
- TV Channel: ESPN+
- Location: Bowling Green, Kentucky
- Stadium: Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
| Favorite | Spread | Favorite Spread Odds | Underdog Spread Odds | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds | Favorite Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | -4.5 | -111 | -109 | 54 | -109 | -111 | -201 | +166 |
Western Kentucky Pick Insights
- So far this season, Western Kentucky has put together a 4-4-0 record against the spread.
- When it has played as at least 4.5-point favorites this season, Western Kentucky is 3-2 against the spread.
- Western Kentucky games have hit the over on three of eight occasions (37.5%).
Western Kentucky Stats & Insights
- With 456.1 yards allowed per game on defense, which ranks fourth-worst in the FBS, Western Kentucky has been forced to lean on its 71st-ranked offense (382.6 yards per contest) to keep them in games.
- Western Kentucky is totaling 28.9 points per game offensively this year (59th in the FBS), and is surrendering 27.7 points per game (84th) on the other side of the ball.
- Western Kentucky is totaling 270.8 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 36th in the FBS. The defense ranks 102nd, allowing 244.7 passing yards per contest.
- It’s been a rough stretch for Western Kentucky in terms of running the ball, ranking 21st-worst in rushing offense (111.8 rushing yards per game) and fifth-worst in rushing defense (211.4 rushing yards per game allowed) in 2023.
- Western Kentucky ranks 77th in third-down efficiency (38.3%) on offense and 71st in third-down conversion rate allowed (38.7%) on defense this season.
- Western Kentucky has forced 19 total turnovers (sixth in the FBS) this season and have turned it over 11 times (42nd in the FBS) for a turnover margin of +8, the ninth-best in college football.
Western Kentucky’s Best Players
- Austin Reed has thrown for 2,375 yards (263.9 ypg) to lead Western Kentucky, completing 59.9% of his passes and recording 21 touchdown passes compared to six interceptions this season. He’s also contributed in the ground game with 96 rushing yards on 33 carries with three rushing touchdowns.
- Elijah Young has 326 rushing yards on 59 carries with three touchdowns.
- Markese Stepp has carried the ball 50 times for 236 yards (26.2 per game) and two touchdowns.
- Malachi Corley’s 662 yards as a receiver pace the team. He’s been targeted 82 times and has totaled 53 receptions and eight touchdowns.
- Easton Messer has caught 27 passes for 335 yards (37.2 yards per game) and three touchdowns this year.
- Dalvin Smith has racked up 28 grabs for 257 yards, an average of 28.6 yards per game. He’s scored two times as a receiver this season.
- Kendrick Simpkins leads the team with 5.5 sacks, and also has six TFL and 37 tackles.
- Western Kentucky’s top-tackler, Talique Allen, has 40 tackles this year.
- Anthony Johnson Jr. has a team-high two interceptions to go along with 26 tackles, one TFL, and two passes defended.
New Mexico State Betting Insights
- New Mexico State has gone 5-2-1 ATS this year.
- New Mexico State is 0-1 against the spread when an underdog by 4.5 points or more this year.
- Two of New Mexico State’s eight games with a set total have hit the over (25%).
New Mexico State Pick Insights
- In terms of total offense, New Mexico State ranks 41st in the FBS (424.6 total yards per game) and 64th on the other side of the ball (370.3 total yards allowed per contest).
- New Mexico State ranks 67th in the FBS with 27.8 points per contest on offense, and it ranks 30th with 20 points surrendered per game on the defensive side of the ball.
- New Mexico State is generating 221.5 passing yards per contest on offense this season (76th-ranked). Meanwhile, it is surrendering 237.3 passing yards per contest (86th-ranked) on defense.
- New Mexico State’s run offense has been leading the charge for the team, as it ranks 15th-best in the FBS with 203.1 rushing yards per contest. In terms of defense, it is ceding 133 rushing yards per game, which ranks 48th.
- With a 39.6% third-down conversion percentage on offense, New Mexico State ranks 64th in the FBS. On defense, it ranks 46th, allowing a 36.4% third-down rate.
- New Mexico State owns a -1 turnover margin this season, which ranks 73rd in the FBS.
New Mexico State’s Best Players
- Pavia has thrown for 2,116 yards on 143-of-239 passing with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions this season. He has chipped on the ground, as well, with 670 yards and five rushing touchdowns.
- Ahmonte Watkins has run for 527 yards across 46 attempts, scoring two touchdowns.
- Jonathan Brady leads his squad with 458 receiving yards on 26 catches with three touchdowns.
- Trent Hudson has caught 17 passes and compiled 322 receiving yards (32.2 per game) with six touchdowns.
- Eli Stowers’ 31 targets have resulted in 24 catches for 271 yards.
- Buddha Peleti has collected 3.5 sacks to pace the team, while also picking up three TFL and 26 tackles.
- Keyshaun Elliott, New Mexico State’s leading tackler, has 67 tackles, six TFL, and 2.5 sacks this year.
- Dylan Early has picked off a team-high one pass. He also has 28 tackles and two passes defended to his name.
