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The Buffalo Bills (11-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) square off in the AFC Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, January 21, 2024.
On defense, the Bills have been a top-five unit, ranking fourth-best by surrendering just 18.3 points per game. They rank sixth on offense (26.5 points per game). The Chiefs’ defense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 17.3 points surrendered per game. In terms of offense, they are generating 21.8 points per game, which ranks 15th.
Bills vs. Chiefs Picks
Game Info: Bills vs. Chiefs
- Game Day: Sunday, January 21, 2024
- Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Orchard Park, New York
- Stadium: Highmark Stadium
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Before you wager on Sunday’s Buffalo-Kansas City spread (Buffalo -2.5) or over/under (45.5 points), see the betting trends and insights below.
Game Trends for Bills
- The Bills put together a 7-10-0 record against the spread in the regular season, and their record in the playoffs is 1-0-0.
- The Bills have an ATS record of 6-8 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites this season (regular season and playoffs).
- During the regular season, six of the Bills’ games went over the point total, and one of one in the playoffs.
Stats & Insights for Bills
- On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit, ranking fourth-best in the NFL by compiling 374.5 yards per game. They rank ninth on defense (307.2 yards allowed per game).
- The Bills rank sixth in points scored this year (26.5 points per game), but they’ve been shining on defense, ranking fourth-best in the NFL with 18.3 points allowed per game.
- The Bills rank eighth in pass offense (244.4 passing yards per game) and seventh in pass defense (196.6 passing yards allowed per game) this year.
- The Bills are putting up 130.1 rushing yards per game on offense (seventh in the NFL), and they rank 15th on defense with 110.6 rushing yards allowed per game.
- On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking best in the NFL by putting up a 49.8% third-down conversion rate. They rank 18th on defense (38.6% third-down conversion rate allowed).
- This season, the Bills are gaining 5.8 yards per play (sixth in the league), while allowing 5.5 per play on the defensive side of the ball (12th in the NFL).
- With 30 forced turnovers (third in NFL) against 28 turnovers committed (23rd in NFL), the Bills’ +2 turnover margin ranks 12th in the league.
Best Players for Bills
- Josh Allen: 4,306 PASS YDS / 253.3 YPG / 66.5% / 29 TD / 18 INT / 111 CAR / 524 RUSH YDS / 15 TD
- James Cook: 237 CAR / 1,122 YDS / 66 YPG / 2 TD / 44 REC / 445 YDS / 26.2 YPG / 4 TD
- Stefon Diggs: 107 REC / 1,183 YDS / 69.6 YPG / 8 TD
- Gabriel Davis: 45 REC / 746 YDS / 46.6 YPG / 7 TD
- Dalton Kincaid: 73 REC / 673 YDS / 42.1 YPG / 2 TD
- Terrel Bernard: 143 TKL / 10 TFL / 6.5 SACK / 3 INT / 5 PD
Game Trends for Chiefs
- The Chiefs compiled a 10-7-0 record against the spread during the regular season. They are 1-0-0 against the spread in the playoffs.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs in their only opportunity in the regular season and playoffs.
- During the regular season, five Chiefs games went over the point total. Their games have topped the total in zero of one postseason opportunities.
Stats & Insights for Chiefs
- The Chiefs have been thriving on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 289.8 total yards per game (second-best). Offensively, they rank ninth by racking up 351.3 total yards per game.
- The Chiefs have been keeping opposing offenses in check on the defensive side of the ball, surrendering just 17.3 points per contest (second-best). On offense, they rank 15th by racking up 21.8 points per game.
- The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL with 246.4 passing yards per contest, but they’ve been led by their defense, which ranks fourth-best by giving up only 176.5 passing yards per game.
- The Chiefs are putting up 104.9 rushing yards per contest on offense this season (19th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are allowing 113.2 rushing yards per contest (17th-ranked) on defense.
- The Chiefs are putting up a 43.6% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (sixth-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering a 37.1% third-down rate (10th-ranked) on defense.
- The Chiefs have been dominant on defense in terms of yards per play, giving up only 5 (fourth-best). On offense, they rank 11th in the NFL by piling up 5.7 yards per play.
- The Chiefs have forced 17 turnovers this season and have turned it over 28 times, resulting in a -11 turnover margin that is fifth-worst in the NFL.
Best Players for Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes II: 4,183 PASS YDS / 261.4 YPG / 67.2% / 27 TD / 14 INT / 75 CAR / 389 RUSH YDS / 0 TD
- Isiah Pacheco: 205 CAR / 935 YDS / 66.8 YPG / 7 TD / 44 REC / 244 YDS / 17.4 YPG / 2 TD
- Travis Kelce: 93 REC / 984 YDS / 65.6 YPG / 5 TD
- Rashee Rice: 79 REC / 938 YDS / 58.6 YPG / 7 TD
- Justin Watson: 27 REC / 460 YDS / 30.7 YPG / 3 TD
- Justin Reid: 95 TKL / 5 TFL / 3 SACK / 1 INT / 7 PD
