Texas State Bobcats vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves Picks & Preview | NCAAFB Week 12

The Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-5) play on Saturday at 3:00 PM ET at Centennial Bank Stadium versus the Texas State Bobcats (6-4).

The Bobcats are the favorites (-3.5) in their game against the Red Wolves, with the over/under being 59.5 points. (In terms of the moneyline, the Bobcats are -176 and the Red Wolves are +147.)

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Game Info for Texas State vs. Arkansas State

• Game Day: Saturday, November 18, 2023
• Game Time: 3:00 PM ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Location: Jonesboro, Arkansas
• Stadium: Centennial Bank Stadium

Texas State Pick Insights

• Texas State has gone 4-5-0 ATS this season.
• Texas State is 1-2 against the spread when favored by 3.5 points or more this season.
• Out of Texas State’s nine games with a set total, two have hit the over (22.2%).

Texas State Stats & Insights

• Texas State ranks 100th in total defense this season (400.9 yards allowed per game), but has been playing really well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 16th-best in the FBS with 454.4 total yards per game.
• On offense, Texas State has been a top-25 unit, ranking 21st-best in the FBS by putting up 34.9 points per game. The Bobcats rank 90th on defense (28.5 points allowed per game).
• Texas State has the 46th-ranked passing offense this year (253.7 passing yards per game), and has been worse on defense, ranking 25th-worst with 248.2 passing yards allowed per game.
• Texas State ranks 77th in run defense this season (152.7 rushing yards allowed per game), but has been shining on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 15th-best in the FBS with 200.7 rushing yards per game.
• Texas State has struggled defensively in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking fifth-worst in the FBS (48.1% third-down percentage) this season. With the ball, however, the Bobcats ranks 25th-best, averaging a 44.9% third-down conversion rate.
• With 13 forced turnovers (72nd in the FBS) against 15 turnovers committed (80th in the FBS), Texas State (-2) has the 83rd-ranked turnover margin in college football.

Texas State’s Best Players

• TJ Finley has thrown for 2,454 yards (245.4 ypg) to lead Texas State, completing 68.9% of his passes and collecting 18 touchdown passes compared to five interceptions this season.
• Ismail Mahdi has carried the ball 159 times for a team-high 1,050 yards on the ground and has found the end zone eight times as a runner.
• Donerio Davenport has carried the ball 71 times for 350 yards (35 per game) and two touchdowns.
• Joey Hobert’s team-high 804 yards as a receiver have come on 64 catches (out of 83 targets) with seven touchdowns.
• Kole Wilson has caught 45 passes for 527 yards (52.7 yards per game) and five touchdowns this year.
• Ashtyn Hawkins has been the target of 62 passes and hauled in 39 grabs for 523 yards, an average of 52.3 yards per contest. He’s found the end zone two times through the air this season.
• Ben Bell has racked up seven sacks to lead the team, while also picking up 11 TFL and 40 tackles.
• Brian Holloway has been all over the field, leading the team in both tackles and interceptions. He has 70 tackles, eight TFL, 0.5 sacks, and two interceptions so far.

Arkansas State Betting Insights

• So far this season, Arkansas State has compiled a 5-4-1 record against the spread.
• In games this year in which they were an underdog by 3.5 points or more, the Red Wolves have a 3-4 record against the spread.
• Four of Arkansas State’s 10 games with a set total have hit the over (40%).

Arkansas State Pick Insights

• Arkansas State has been struggling on defense, ranking 17th-worst with 431.4 total yards surrendered per game. It has been more effective on the other side of the ball, regstering 371.4 total yards per contest (78th-ranked).
• Arkansas State is compiling 23.5 points per contest on offense this season (94th-ranked). Meanwhile, it is giving up 30.8 points per game (106th-ranked) on defense.
• Arkansas State has been struggling against the pass, ranking 18th-worst with 256 passing yards surrendered per game. It has been more effective on offense, regstering 222.2 passing yards per contest (74th-ranked).
• Arkansas State’s defense has been bottom-25 in run defense this season, surrendering 175.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th-worst in the FBS. On the offensive side of the ball, it ranks 79th with 149.2 rushing yards per contest.
• Arkansas State is putting up a 34.6% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (107th-ranked). Meanwhile, it is surrendering a 39% third-down rate (70th-ranked) on defense.
• After forcing eight turnovers (123rd in the FBS) and turning the ball over 10 times (21st in the FBS) this season, Arkansas State sports the 83rd-ranked turnover margin of -2.

Arkansas State’s Best Players

• Jaylen Raynor has 1,834 passing yards, or 183.4 per game, so far this season. He has completed 58.5% of his passes and has recorded 14 touchdowns with five interceptions. He’s also contributed on the ground with 33.3 rushing yards per game while scoring as a runner five times.
• The team’s top rusher, Ja’Quez Cross, has carried the ball 96 times for 522 yards (52.2 per game) with three touchdowns.
• Zak Wallace has compiled 491 yards on 114 carries with four touchdowns.
• Courtney Jackson has collected 27 receptions this season and his team-high yardage total sits at 503 (50.3 yards per game). He’s been targeted 48 times and has six touchdowns.
• Corey Rucker has put together a 461-yard season so far. He’s caught 24 passes on 57 targets.
• Jeff Foreman’s 19 grabs (on 37 targets) have netted him 395 yards (39.5 ypg) and four touchdowns.
• Keyron Crawford has 4.5 sacks to pace the team, and also has five TFL and 34 tackles.
• Trevian Thomas, Arkansas State’s leading tackler, has 57 tackles, one TFL, and one interception this year.
• Eddie Smith has a team-high two interceptions to go along with 18 tackles and two passes defended.