SMU Mustangs vs. North Texas Mean Green Picks & Preview | NCAAFB Week 11

One of the top wide receivers in college football will be on display when Jay Maclin and the North Texas Mean Green (3-6) visit the SMU Mustangs (7-2) on Friday, November 10, 2023.

The Mustangs are very big favorites (currently -17) in their game versus the Mean Green, with the over/under at 66.5 points. (On the moneyline, the Mustangs are -864 and the Mean Green are +571.)

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Game Info for SMU vs. North Texas

• Game Day: Friday, November 10, 2023
• Game Time: 9:00 PM ET
• TV Channel: ESPN2
• Location: University Park, Texas
• Stadium: Gerald J. Ford Stadium

SMU Pick Insights

• So far this season, SMU has posted a 4-4-0 record against the spread.
• In games this season as favorites of at least 17 points, SMU has a 3-1 record against the spread.
• The teams have hit the over in three of SMU’s eight games with a set total.

SMU Stats & Insights

• SMU has been finding success on both sides of the ball, ranking 14th-best in total offense (465.3 yards per game) and eighth-best in total defense (281.8 yards allowed per game).
• SMU has been a difficult matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-25 in both scoring offense (seventh-best with 40 points per game) and scoring defense (ninth-best with 15.9 points allowed per game) this season.
• SMU has been a tough matchup for opposing teams in the passing game, with a top-25 ranking in both passing offense (20th-best with 291.2 passing yards per game) and passing defense (ninth-best with 166.4 passing yards allowed per game) this year.
• SMU is putting up 174.1 rushing yards per game on offense, which ranks them 42nd in the FBS. The team’s defensive unit ranks 30th, allowing 115.3 rushing yards per game.
• SMU sports the 40th-ranked offense this year in terms of third-down efficiency (43% percentage), and has been better on defense, ranking seventh-best with a 28.1% third-down percentage allowed.
• SMU ranks 45th in college football with a +2 turnover margin after forcing 10 turnovers (95th in the FBS) and committing eight (14th in the FBS).

SMU’s Best Players

• Preston Stone has compiled 2,362 yards (262.4 ypg) on 166-of-282 passing with 21 touchdowns compared to five interceptions this season. In addition, he’s added 199 rushing yards (22.1 ypg) on 48 carries while scoring three touchdowns on the ground.
• The team’s top rusher, Jaylan Knighton, has carried the ball 94 times for 511 yards (56.8 per game), scoring four times.
• LJ Johnson Jr. has carried the ball 58 times for 321 yards (35.7 per game) and one touchdown.
• Jake Bailey’s 384 yards as a receiver lead the team. He’s been targeted 41 times and has collected 31 catches.
• Jordan Kerley has put together a 319-yard season so far with two touchdowns, reeling in 18 passes on 31 targets.
• Jordan Hudson has hauled in 22 catches for 317 yards, an average of 35.2 yards per game. He’s scored five times as a receiver this season.
• Elijah Roberts has 6.5 sacks to lead the team, and also has six TFL and 21 tackles.
• Kobe Wilson is the team’s top-tackler this year. He’s picked up 44 tackles, two TFL, and one interception.
• Isaiah Nwokobia has picked off a team-high two passes. He also has 40 tackles, three TFL, one sack, and two passes defended to his name.

North Texas Betting Insights

• North Texas is 5-3-1 ATS this season.
• When it has played as at least 17-point underdogs this season, North Texas is 1-0 against the spread.
• North Texas games have gone over the point total in five out of nine opportunities (55.6%).

North Texas Pick Insights

• On the defensive side of the ball, North Texas is a bottom-25 unit, surrendering 468.3 total yards per game (second-worst). Fortunately, it is thriving on the other side of the ball, accumulating 482.3 total yards per contest (10th-best).
• While North Texas’ defense has been stuck in neutral, ranking fifth-worst by giving up 36.7 points per game, its offense ranks 23rd-best with 34.8 points per contest.
• North Texas’ pass defense ranks 45th in the FBS with 208.3 passing yards allowed per game, but it has been led by its offense, which ranks 13th-best by putting up 301.7 passing yards per contest.
• North Texas has been struggling in run defense, ranking worst with 260 rushing yards surrendered per game. It has been more effective offensively, generating 180.7 rushing yards per contest (36th-ranked).
• North Texas’ defense has been a bottom-25 unit on third down this season, ceding a 45% third-down conversion percentage, which ranks 19th-worst in the FBS. On offense, it ranks 35th with a 45% third-down rate.
• With 12 forced turnovers (73rd in the FBS) and 14 turnovers committed (80th in the FBS) this season, North Texas ranks 79th in the FBS with a turnover margin of -2.

North Texas’ Best Players

• Chandler Rogers leads North Texas with 2,445 yards on 195-of-308 passing with 21 touchdowns compared to three interceptions this season. He has chipped in with 144 rushing yards (16 ypg) on 74 carries while scoring three touchdowns on the ground.
• Ayo Adeyi is his team’s leading rusher with 98 carries for 716 yards, or 79.6 per game. He’s found paydirt four times on the ground, as well.
• Oscar Adaway III has run for 409 yards across 77 attempts, scoring four touchdowns.
• Maclin has hauled in 766 receiving yards on 44 catches to pace his team so far this season while scoring 11 touchdowns as a receiver.
• Roderic Burns has totaled 432 receiving yards (48 yards per game) and four touchdowns on 36 receptions.
• Damon Ward Jr.’s 29 catches (on 47 targets) have netted him 385 yards (42.8 ypg) and four touchdowns.
• Ethan Wesloski has two sacks to lead the team, and also has three TFL and 48 tackles.
• Jordan Brown, North Texas’ top tackler, has 64 tackles, one TFL, and one sack this year.
• Phillip Hill leads the team with two interceptions, while also putting up 33 tackles, one TFL, and three passes defended.