Table of Contents
The Buffalo Bills (4-2) visit a struggling New England Patriots (1-5) team on Sunday, October 22, 2023 at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots have lost three straight games.
The Bills have been a difficult matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (third-best with 28.8 points per game) and scoring defense (third-best with 14.8 points allowed per game) this season. The Patriots have not been getting things done on offense, ranking second-worst in the NFL with 12 points per game. They have been more productive on defense, giving up 25.3 points per contest (24th-ranked).
Bills vs. Patriots Picks
Splash Inc. users project the Bills will win straight up against the Patriots on Sunday, with 95.0% of users picking them to finish on top. However, users are split 50-50 on who will cover the 8.5-point spread.
Game Info: Bills vs. Patriots
- Game Day: Sunday, October 22, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Stadium: Gillette Stadium
Get your NFL contest started with Splash Sports, the leader in peer-to-peer real-money gaming. Play against your friends, not the house.
Start here >
Buffalo is an 8.5-point favorite against New England on Sunday and the over/under is set at 41.5 points. Below are a few betting insights and trends before you decide to wager on the matchup.
Game Trends for Bills
- The Bills have posted a 3-3-0 record against the spread this season.
- The Bills are winless against the spread (0-1) when playing as at least 8.5-point favorites.
- In the Bills’ six games with a set total, two have hit the over (33.3%).
Stats & Insights for Bills
- The Bills rank 12th in total defense this year (323.8 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking fifth-best in the NFL with 374.8 total yards per game.
- The Bills have been a tough matchup for opposing teams, as they rank top-five in both scoring offense (third-best with 28.8 points per game) and scoring defense (third-best with 14.8 points allowed per game) this year.
- The Bills are putting up 256.7 passing yards per game on offense, which ranks them eighth in the NFL. Defensively, they rank seventh, surrendering 190.2 passing yards per contest.
- The Bills are totaling 118.2 rushing yards per game on offense this year (12th in NFL), and they are surrendering 133.7 rushing yards per game (25th) on the defensive side of the ball.
- On offense, the Bills have been a top-five unit in terms of third-down efficiency, ranking second-best in the NFL by putting up a 49.3% third-down percentage. They rank 23rd on defense (42.1% third-down percentage allowed).
- The Bills own the 24th-ranked defense this year in terms of yards per play (5.9 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been more effective on the other side of the ball, ranking second-best with 6.1 yards per play.
- With 13 forced turnovers (second in NFL) against nine turnovers committed (20th in NFL), the Bills’ +4 turnover margin ranks 10th in the league.
Best Players for Bills
- Josh Allen: 1,576 PASS YDS / 262.7 YPG / 71.7% / 13 TD / 6 INT / 22 CAR / 131 RUSH YDS / 3 TD
- James Cook: 75 CAR / 363 YDS / 60.5 YPG / 1 TD / 14 REC / 140 YDS / 23.3 YPG / 0 TD
- Stefon Diggs: 49 REC / 620 YDS / 103.3 YPG / 5 TD
- Gabriel Davis: 21 REC / 341 YDS / 56.8 YPG / 4 TD
- Terrel Bernard: 57 TKL / 5 TFL / 2 SACK / 2 INT / 2 PD
Game Trends for Patriots
- The Patriots have covered the spread once in six opportunities this year.
- The Patriots have hit the over in one of six games with a set total (16.7%).
Stats & Insights for Patriots
- From an offensive perspective, the Patriots are posting 282.7 total yards per contest (27th-ranked). They rank 10th in the NFL on the other side of the ball (306.7 total yards given up per game).
- The Patriots have been struggling on offense, ranking second-worst in the NFL with 12 points per game. They have been more effective defensively, allowing 25.3 points per contest (24th-ranked).
- The Patriots rank 22nd in the NFL with 199 passing yards per game on offense, and they rank 12th with 202.7 passing yards ceded per contest on defense.
- From an offensive standpoint, the Patriots are generating 83.7 rushing yards per contest (26th-ranked). They rank 15th in the NFL defensively (104 rushing yards given up per game).
- The Patriots are generating a 35.2% third-down conversion percentage on offense this season (25th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are giving up a 37.3% third-down rate (10th-ranked) on defense.
- The Patriots rank third-worst in yards per play (4.7), but they’ve been more effective on the defensive side of the ball, ranking sixth in the NFL with 5 yards conceded per play.
- The Patriots have forced three turnovers this season and have turned the ball over 11 times, resulting in a -8 turnover margin that is second-worst in the NFL.
Best Players for Patriots
- Mac Jones: 1,208 PASS YDS / 201.3 YPG / 64.2% / 5 TD / 7 INT
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 78 CAR / 234 YDS / 39 YPG / 2 TD / 17 REC / 111 YDS / 18.5 YPG / 0 TD
- Ezekiel Elliott: 49 CAR / 193 YDS / 32.2 YPG / 1 TD / 13 REC / 59 YDS / 9.8 YPG / 0 TD
- Kendrick Bourne: 28 REC / 307 YDS / 51.2 YPG / 2 TD
- Hunter Henry: 18 REC / 183 YDS / 30.5 YPG / 2 TD
- Mike Gesicki: 15 REC / 144 YDS / 24 YPG / 0 TD
- Kyle Dugger: 40 TKL / 3 TFL / 2 PD
