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Summertime in college athletics. Campuses are empty, rumors aplenty, and the musical chairs of conference realignment is in mid-heat.
For all the changes college sports have undergone in recent times, conference realignment remains the most regular disturbance to daily life. The transfer portal works in many ways, apparently.
Colorado is the latest domino to fall. The Buffaloes are moseying back to the Big 12 after 12 years of West Coast flirtation, putting the Pac-Whatever and its totally-not-panicked outstanding members in an even worse position than before.
This won’t be the end. Those outside of the SEC and Big Ten will vie for invites, those a rung below will pray for entrance to the Big 12, and G5 schools will scratch and crawl to climb whatever ladder they can. That’s the modern paradigm.
So, what’s next? We know we’re not at the end. Far from it, as the end will never come. The Big 12 will now have 13 members with Colorado and without Texas and Oklahoma, a strange number that probably won’t last long. The SEC and Big Ten broke the seal on 16, and the Big 12 has shown a willingness to be aggressive in recent years. It’s not outlandish for the conference to collect three more to reach that bar. Then comes the ramifications.
There are some major players with uncertain futures right now. Some schools seem to have joint fates, but we know it’s ultimately every university for itself. Let’s entertain the existential dread of several fan bases, shall we?
What Happens Next in Conference Realignment?
Big 12 + 4 = 16
The Pac-12 is in a terrible position right now. The conference still doesn’t have a TV contract beyond this season, it lost three members in two years, and it’s currently undergoing a litany of legal challenges. If there were ever a time to deliver a death blow, it would be now.
The addition of Colorado shows the Big 12 knows. The league staying put at 13 would be odd; there’s little chance it isn’t courting at least one more convert. No SEC or Big Ten school is jumping ship. The most valuable ACC schools have their eyes on the prize of the SEC or Big Ten, while the less valuable ACC schools probably won’t be the ones to go first considering they greatly benefit from the conference sticking together. This leaves the disheveled husk of the Pac-12 for the Big 12 to pick through. And look at how convenient: Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all located right at the Big 12’s door!
These aren’t the only reported contenders. Connecticut and Gonzaga have also come up plenty, with the Zags as a basketball-only member in this theoretical future. The Huskies heading to the Big 12 might sound outlandish on its face, but the league’s tactics for the future are through basketball, international appeal, and becoming a national conference – holding hoops contests in Mexico is one indicator of that. Of course, football is important, too, but the league understands its position relative to the SEC and Big Ten. If you can’t beat ‘em, do something else.
“We’re going to consider all options,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark told reporters in June. “We do see the upside in basketball for all the right reasons. We think it’s undervalued and there is a chance for us to double down as the No. 1 basketball conference in America.”
According to Pat Forde and Richard Johnson of Sports Illustrated, the Big 12 is eager to gobble up one of Arizona, Arizona State, or Utah immediately as soon as they get an answer from one of them. The Wildcats check the Big 12’s boxes the best of the three easternmost Pac-12 schools left, and the rumors around them have been heavier than the rest. Zona’s who I see as the next Big 12 devotee.
The league may feel full at 14, but even if so, it’ll be equally insatiable in a year or two. This is an arms race, and those are notoriously unsatisfying. The Pac-12 is in complete shambles – after Colorado said goodbye, the league announced it would look into expansion after signing a media rights deal, a puzzling order of operations that I can’t help explain.
There’s not much for current Pac-12 members to cling to for a brighter future. When the arm is extended to Utah and Arizona State, they will grab hold. They could fumble and let someone else have the lifeline, because they’ve been more pro-Pac than others. But for the sake of my exercise, I’m assuming the Utes and Sun Devils make the sensible decision and ditch the sinking ship.
The Great Pac Partition
Do you hear that? That’s the Pac-12 not-quickly-enough ushering in dump trucks from the landfill to pad its numbers to pretend it isn’t already alive in name only. But hey, being a shell of your former self yet still operating beats ceasing to exist at all, so here come the monotonic beeps!
Let’s recap who the conference is left with sans the Four Corner schools: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, and Cal. A six-team conference simply won’t cut it in modern college athletics. So, the Pac-12 must add.
We know San Diego State and SMU are targets. In fact, the Aztecs went through a bizarre and embarrassing saga this summer thanks to a combination of their itch to join the Pac-12 and the Pac-12’s inability to do anything right. The Mountain West would be the primary point of feasting for the Pac-12, but since the June 30 deadline passed, the exit fee for a school to depart the MWC has doubled to $34 million. Way to be proactive, Pac-12.
What the existence of the Pac-12 hinges on further, though, is the Big Ten’s interest in Oregon and Washington. Both were reportedly on the league’s list for new additions, but the Big Ten soured at the prospect of exceeding 16. But of course, that didn’t last long – again, it’s an arms race – and the Ducks and Huskies being an even easier add than before seems to have charted a new course. Perhaps the Big Ten attaches a higher value to targets presently residing in the ACC; given its current hand, the Big Ten can afford to hold.
There’s no limit to the size a conference can reach, and I expect these leagues to test those limits anyway. There are a lot of reasons why Oregon and Washington make sense in the Big Ten, and the ACC fish can be fried when the time comes, too. The Big Ten could likely convince the desperate Ducks and Huskies to sign a favorable deal while firmly cementing its grasp on the Pacific Coast, which appears to be part of what has altered the league’s view on the idea. The conference is even reportedly looking at Stanford and Cal, two comparatively smaller gets, another ax swing into the Pac-12’s fragile foundation.
The Pac-12 will try to backfill first, albeit lackadaisical, but it won’t matter to Oregon, Washington, or anyone else. Nobody the league adds will make it a better option than the Big Ten; the same goes for the Big 12 or ACC if the Big Ten truly turned up its nose. There’s no way to stop the bleeding.
If the Big Ten doesn’t work out like the league’s media partners reportedly prefer, Stanford could go independent. Its academic stature and Bay Area location mean it can survive and maybe even succeed athletically without a conference. That would be better than joining the Mountain West or going through the hassle of adding a bunch of Mountain West teams to the Pac-12. It’s possible that Cal could try the same, though the Golden Bears would find life in the Mountain West more suitable than their local rivals.
The Mountain West would welcome Oregon State and Washington State in a heartbeat. The only other avenue for the Beavers and Cougars would be the AAC, but geography and fit make the MWC the more amenable move. Considering two or three Pac-12 schools would be joining and no one else would want the Pac-Whatever name at this point, the Mountain West could rebrand as the Pac-14 or Pac-15 and pretend nothing happened.
The Great Pac Partition will spread its former congregants among three conferences and independence. The transformed Pac-15 will feature marquee matchups such as Hawaii-Wyoming and Air Force-New Mexico. The Big Ten will stretch from Los Angeles to Seattle to Piscataway. The Big 12 will have Arizona travel to Florida for a conference game. You’ll get nothing and like it.
Or, the Big Ten won’t want Oregon and Washington, the Pac-12 leftovers will absorb what of the Mountain West they find redeemable (Boise State and UNLV, come on down, you’re the next contestants the league can let down!), limp through whatever meager short-term future it has in that form, and the MWC will have a backfill job big enough for FCS schools to lick their lips. North Dakota State, anyone? Spin the wheel!
CFB FAQs
How are college football bowl games determined?
Only bowl-eligible teams are selected for College Football Bowls. At the NCAA Division I FBS level, the standard by which teams become available for selection in bowl games varies. For example, in 2018-19 season, the team had to have at least as many wins as overall losses. Wins against non-Division I teams do not count toward the number of wins.
How do you play college football pick'em pools?
Simply pick winners from the games each week selected by the Pool Commissioner, either straight up or against the spread. Whichever member has the most points at the end of the season wins
What is a football pool?
"Football Pool" is a broad term for a group of people competitively guessing the outcome of one or more football games. There are many types of formats, each assigning winners differently. They can be played informally between friends or through a more formalized system. They are often considered a great alternative to fantasy football given the ease of playing, although there are fantasy football pools as well.
How to run a football pool?
How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.
How to play squares football pools?
Football squares are played by creating a grid, in which Team 1 takes the column and Team 2 the rows. In some cases, participants may claim as many squares as they like. In others, commissioners limit them to one. At the quarter times and end of the game, the winner is decided at the point the scores final digit intersect.
How do you setup a college football bowl pool?
To set up a college football bowl pool, you'll need to first choose if you will include all the games or specific ones. Then, you'll need to set the ground rules. As commissioner, you'll implement rules to ensure everything runs smoothly during the bowl games. Many use pool sites like RunYourPool to make the process easier.
What is a college football squares pool?
In a college football squares pool, a commissioner starts with a 10x10 grid of 100 squares (though commissioners decide to use smaller 5x5 pools). Members pick one or more squares in that grid. Winners are determined based on the score of each team after each quarter and at the end of the game.
How many squares in a football pool?
In a traditional football squares pool, a grid is sectioned off into 100 squares with 10 columns and 10 rows. This accounts for a direct relationship between each possible digit from 0 to 9 on both the X and Y axis. For smaller square grids like 5x5, multiple numbers can be assigned to each column and row.
How to read a football squares pool sheet?
In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.
How do you setup a college football bowl pool?
To set up a college football bowl pool, you'll need to first choose if you will include all the games or specific ones. Then, you'll need to set the ground rules. As commissioner, you'll implement rules to ensure everything runs smoothly during the bowl games. Many use pool sites like RunYourPool to make the process easier.
How do you win college football confidence bowl pool?
The winner of a college bowl confidence pool is the member with the most points after all games have ended. Members rank each game based on how confident they are in their pick (44 points = most confident, 1 point = least confident). For each game picked correctly, members receive the number of points they assigned.
What is a college football bowl confidence pool?
Players try to pick the winner of every bowl game, assigning a point value to each game. Picks are made "straight up," not using a point spread system. Members rank each game based on how confident they are (44 points = most confident, 1 point = least confident). A winner is determined by totalling the point values assigned to correctly picked games.
How do you setup a college football bowl pool?
To set up a college football bowl pool, you'll need to first choose if you will include all the games or specific ones. Then, you'll need to set the ground rules. As commissioner, you'll implement rules to ensure everything runs smoothly during the bowl games. Many use pool sites like RunYourPool to make the process easier.
How do you win college football bowl pick'em pool?
As you might expect, the player who selects the most bowl winners will win their pick'em pool. You can win your college football bowl pick'em pool by choosing winners wisely, based on past performance, player starting status and other "intangibles."
What is a college football bowl pick'em pool?
In a College Bowl Pick'em pool members attempt to pick the winner of every College Bowl game (or a subset of games determined by the Pool Commissioner). Picks are made using the point spread system or "straight up", as assigned by the Pool Commissioner.
