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Picking NFL winners Against the Spread (ATS) is a great way to dive deeper into the game and explore the trends behind the oddsmakers’ lines. Understanding spreads and how certain teams perform ATS will give you an edge to beat your friends in your Survivor Pool. In this series, we profile two divisions per week and offer up free tips, or identify survivor traps, in each team’s 2023 schedule.
NFC South – No-one’s Favorite Division
NFC South teams weren’t great to watch in 2022, though that will change with an injection of talent at QB for many of this year’s squads. What we can take forward from last year’s numbers is that expecting an NFC South team to win when they are favored ATS may be a tall order in 2023 (the entire division went just 8-20-1 as favorites in ‘22).
2022 Record ATS
Team | ATS (ALL) | AWAY | HOME | ‘DOG | FAV. |
Atlanta | 9-8 | 4-4 | 5-4 | 7-5 | 2-3 |
Carolina | 9-8 | 4-4 | 5-4 | 9-4 | 0-4 |
New Orleans | 7-10 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 5-6 | 2-4 |
Tampa Bay | 4-13-1 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 4-9-1 |
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta was pretty good as an underdog (58%) but the one stat that really jumps off the page when you dig into the Falcons’ ATS performance is their 8-4 record ATS in conference games. So, if you get a week where Atlanta is a home underdog to a conference opponent, pick them. This could happen as early as Week 1 vs. the Panthers, or Week 2 vs. the Packers.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers spent a lot of time as an underdog last season and excelled ATS in that role (9-4). The arrival of Bryce Young changes things to start 2023 — he may be the next big thing but relying on it early in the season may not be your best move in a survivor pool format. That said, don’t pick the Panthers in your survivor pool until at least November if you can help it.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is also an ‘all bets are off’ kind of team to enter the 2023 season. QB Derek Carr has parachuted in and Dennis Allen is now HC. I couldn’t find a single ATS category where the Saints were over 50% last year (that’s bad). They were the worst against teams in their own division (1-5). So, if I am looking for an indicator from NO in 2023, it’s to go win a road game against a divisional foe; then I’ll think about picking them.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Oh my, the Bucs. The one sure pick you could make most weeks last season was that the Bucs were not going to cover the spread — not at home, not away, not as a ‘dog, and not as a fav. Now, Baker Mayfield is in town to run the O and what you think of that player will have a lot to do with how you pick this team. I like the Bucs at home vs the Bears in Week 2 for a survivor pick.
AFC South – The Sneaky Good Division
The AFC South had three teams finish with a winning record ATS in 2022: the Titans, Jaguars and Texans. The addition of C.J. Stroud in Houston and Anthony Richardson in Indy brings a tonne of playmaking ability to the division that will have oddsmakers scrambling to pick favorites in 2023.
2022 Record ATS
Team | ATS (ALL) | AWAY | HOME | ‘DOG | FAV. |
Houston | 8-8-1 | 5-3-1 | 3-5 | 8-8-1 | – |
Indianapolis | 6-11 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 1-6 |
Jacksonville | 10-9 | 5-5 | 5-3 | 9-5 | 1-4 |
Tennessee | 9-7-1 | 6-2-1 | 3-5 | 5-3-1 | 4-3 |
Houston Texans
Houston was better than 50% both overall and as an underdog ATS in 2022; that’s not bad for a team that only won three games straight-up. The Texans were most dangerous last season as an away underdog, which may be the case in Week 2 when all eyes will be on the Texans at Colts match-up — this could be a great spot to pick the Texans early in your survivor pool.
Indianapolis Colts
So much has changed for the Colts this offseason that it’s really not fair to look at ‘22 numbers, other than to remark that perhaps the Colts were favored far too often last season (7 games); that seems like an awful lot for a team that went 4-12-1. If you can hold off in your survivor pool, I like the Colts at home to the Rams on October 1st.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were a great underdog (9-5) in 2022, but a poor favorite (1-4), and went just 3-3 in their own division, which did not feature another team with a winning record. Trevor Lawrence is the man at QB and this team has stability other AFC South teams do not. With five of their first six games at home, I like the Jaguars to go on a nice little run in my survivor pool to start the season.
Tennessee Titans
Like the Jags, Tennessee was a good team both in the win-loss column and ATS in 2022, going 9-7-1 overall and a brilliant 6-2-1 at home. TEN was great after an ATS win last season (6-1), meaning if you see them win one week, it’s a good idea to pick them again the following week. The Titans travel particularly well against conference teams, setting up Week 2’s visit to the Chargers as a good opportunity to pick the Titans ATS in your survivor pool.
NFL FAQs
How do you play football survival pool?
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Players pick one team each week they think will win the game outright. They may only pick a team ONCE per season, meaning you can't pick the same team twice in one season. If their pick is correct, the player survives another week and continues to play. An incorrect pick eliminates the player from the contest entirely. This is sometimes called an elimination or suicide pool. The last person standing wins.
How to make a football pool?
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A football pool generally requires the creation of a shareable spreadsheet (like Google Sheets) so that members may pick teams. Then depending on the game type, creators must use several kinds of formulas (e.g. CountIF), data validation, and conditional formatting. Or, you can just use football pool hosting service like RunYourPool where we do all the work for you!
How to run a weekly football pool?
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In order to run a football pool, you must first crown yourself as Pool Commissioner. Begin by picking a game type like Survivor or Pick'Em. You'll want to establish rules before inviting friends, family, and colleagues to join. As commissioner, you make the rules and also need to enforce them equally and fairly.
What is a football survivor pool?
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In a Football Survivor Pool, players choose one team weekly they think will win. Usually, a team can be picked one time per season. Picks are made "straight up," no spreads necessary. If a pick is correct, members survive another week. An incorrect pick eliminates the player, unless a mulligan is used.
How does a football pool work?
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Football pools are games of skill played among a group of people. There are a variety of pool types to fit every players needs, from casual to competitive. Pool commissioners can set up pools manually, or use a hosting service like RunYourPool whiel still customizing your own settings. Some examples include NFL Squares, NFL Survivor, NFL Pick 'Em, and Playoff Brackets.
What is an NFL pickem pool?
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In an NFL pick’em pool, simply pick the outcome of each NFL game throughout the season. You can pick straight up winners or losers, or pick each game against the spread.
How to play a football pool?
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The way one plays a football pool varies on the game type. For example, in Survivor, you pick one team to win each week and can't pick that team again. Guess wrong and you lose. Another example is Pick'em Pools in which you simply pick every game each week.
How does a fantasy football pool work?
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Fantasy football pools don’t involve a traditional fantasy football draft. You can have as many members in your pool as you’d like, meaning no more 12 or 14 team limits! You pick a new lineup of players each week, and once you use a player once, you can’t use them again for the rest of the season.
What is a fantasy football pool?
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A fantasy football pool is similar to a traditional fantasy football league but without the draft. Pick a new lineup each week, and once you use a player, you can’t use them for the rest of the season. Your players will receive points based on their in-game stats, and the member with the most points at the end of the season is the winner.
What is a football pool?
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"Football Pool" is a broad term for a group of people competitively guessing the outcome of one or more football games. There are many types of formats, each assigning winners differently. They can be played informally between friends or through a more formalized system. They are often considered a great alternative to fantasy football given the ease of playing, although there are fantasy football pools as well.
How do football pool squares work?
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There are different kinds of football square pools. Most have a 10x10 grid with one team for the rows and columns. In an attempt to win, participants select a square where they believe the last digit number of each team's score will intersect at the end of each quarter, and the game's end.
How do you play football squares pools?
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To play a football squares pool, you're going to want to pick the squares with the best odds. As winners are determined by the point totals at the end of each quarter, try to consider options where scores are most common. Some of the most popular squares include 7-3, 7-0, 7-7, and 0-0. Numbers divisible by seven are good starting points.
How many squares in a football pool?
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In a traditional football squares pool, a grid is sectioned off into 100 squares with 10 columns and 10 rows. This accounts for a direct relationship between each possible digit from 0 to 9 on both the X and Y axis. For smaller square grids like 5x5, multiple numbers can be assigned to each column and row.
How to play squares football pools?
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Football squares are played by creating a grid, in which Team 1 takes the column and Team 2 the rows. In some cases, participants may claim as many squares as they like. In others, commissioners limit them to one. At the quarter times and end of the game, the winner is decided at the point the scores final digit intersect.
What is a football squares pool?
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Also called Grid, Block, or Box Pools, Football Squares Pools can be played with any single game, but are most popular during the Super Bowl. Pool members claim squares on a 25, 50, or 100-square grid by putting their information in the square. Game scores are matched to the winning square(s), usually with winners being determined every quarter.
How to read a football pool sheet?
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In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.
How do you play football credits pool?
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In the credits format, all players start with the same number of credits. Players make picks each week by risking a certain number of credits on games, assigning more credits to the picks with a higher confidence level. Members receive double the credits risked for each win. The member with the most credits at the end of the season wins.
What is a football credits pool?
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In Football Credits Pools, players start with the same number of credits. They then make picks each week by risking a number of credits on games, assigning more to the picks they have more confidence in getting right. Members double credits risked for each win. The member with the highest credits at the end of the season wins.
How to run a football pool?
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How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.
How do you play football confidence pool?
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A football confidence pool is played straight up, not with a point spread. Not only do members pick the winning teams, they must back up their picks by giving them a relative confidence ranking. Your score reflects the number of confidence points given to winning teams. So if your confidence for a team winning is '1', then you can only win one point at most. If your confidence for a team winning is '5', then you can win five points for a win. The member with the most credits at the end wins.
What is a football confidence pool?
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"Football Confidence Pool" refers to how you rank the teams that you think will win each week. For example, in the NFL, there are often 16 games weekly. In this scenario, you would rank each game from 16 to 1, based on the your confidence in that team winning.
How do you play football margin pool?
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Margin pools are an NFL pool format that rewards members for picking a winning team each week. Pool commissioners can decide whether they award points equal to a winning teams margin of victory or the point spread for that game. When a commissioner chooses the point spread option, this format is often referred to as an NFL Underdog Pool.
What is a football margin pool?
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In a Football Margin Pool, you are awarded points for picking a winning team. Pool commissioners get to decide whether they award points equal to a winning teams margin of victory or the point spread for that game. The player with the most points at the end of the season wins.
How do you play football 33 point pool?
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The football 33 pool format is a casual pool where members are each assigned an NFL team (these pools are 32 members max, as there are 32 NFL teams). Members win when their team scores 33 points. Options for changing the target score, or having the closest to the target win each week is also available.
What is a football 33 point pool?
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In the football 33 pool format, each member is assigned a unique NFL team (32 members max). A member will win when their team scores 33 points. This is a casual pool where you can change the target score or the option to have the closest to the target that week win.
How to run a weekly football pool?
![down arrow](https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.runyourpool.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/12215336/img_68483.png)
In order to run a football pool, you must first crown yourself as Pool Commissioner. Begin by picking a game type like Survivor or Pick'Em. You'll want to establish rules before inviting friends, family, and colleagues to join. As commissioner, you make the rules and also need to enforce them equally and fairly.
What is an NFL Playoff bracket pool?
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NFL Playoff Bracket pools are simple NFL pool formats where members pick every round of the playoffs before they start in an attempt to predict every match up correctly. It's optional to configure a multiplier for each round, or add a tiebreaker option of total points in the Super Bowl.
How to make a football pool?
![down arrow](https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.runyourpool.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/12215336/img_68483.png)
A football pool generally requires the creation of a shareable spreadsheet (like Google Sheets) so that members may pick teams. Then depending on the game type, creators must use several kinds of formulas (e.g. CountIF), data validation, and conditional formatting. Or, you can just use football pool hosting service like RunYourPool where we do all the work for you!
How to set up a football pool?
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To set up a football pool, you'll need to first choose a pool type like Survivor or Pick'em. Then, you'll need to set the ground rules. As pool commissioner, you'll enforce these rules and make sure the game runs smoothly throughout the season. Many commissioners use pool hosting sites like RunYourPool to make it easier and more engaging.
What is a football power ranking playoff pool?
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In a power ranking playoff pool, members rank all 12 NFL teams competing in the playoffs from strongest (12 points) to weakest (1 point). Picks are made only ONCE before any games begin. Members are awarded the number of points assigned to a team when they win. Commissioners can optionally set up a point multiplier for each playoff round.
What is a football confidence pool?
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"Football Confidence Pool" refers to how you rank the teams that you think will win each week. For example, in the NFL, there are often 16 games weekly. In this scenario, you would rank each game from 16 to 1, based on the your confidence in that team winning. This is similar to the Playoff Pool Power Ranking, just less teams.
How to run a football pool?
![down arrow](https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.runyourpool.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/12215336/img_68483.png)
How you decide to run a football pool varies greatly depending on the game type. In each case, however, you'll want to determine the rules and settings before you begin inviting members to join you. You'll want to clearly establish how score will be kept, how tiebreakers work, and how winners are decided before anything else.
What is a football playoff precision pool?
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In a playoff precision pool, members attempt to pick the winner of every playoff game each week. You can decide if it’s straight up or on a point spread picks, but point totals are also added. Points are awarded for correct picks AND for how close to the correct combined point total they were.
How to read a football pool sheet?
![down arrow](https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.runyourpool.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/12215336/img_68483.png)
In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.
What is a Super Bowl Prop Bets Pool?
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A Super Bowl Prop Bet Pool is a fun and thrilling way to compete against friends and family during the big game! It's a simple questionaire of prop betting questions revolving around the Super Bowl, and whoever earns the most points based off correct answers wins!
How does a Super Bowl Prop Bets Pool work?
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Pool members simply fill out a wide range of prop questions, each question worth a different value. Commissioners decide on the point value for each question, along with the amount of questions. Whichever member earns the most points based on corret answers wins the pool.
What is a football Super Bowl Squares pool?
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Also called Grid, Block, or Box Pools, Football Squares Pools can be played with any single game, but are most popular during the Super Bowl. Pool members claim squares on a 25, 50, or 100-square grid by putting their information in the square. Game scores are matched to the winning square(s), usually with winners being determined every quarter.
What is a prop bet?
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Prop bets are any sort of pick or wager on a game that has nothing to do with the score or the final score outcome. Props can range from game types, to team types and even player types - such as who will score the game's first and last touchdowns? Other props, such as novelty or exotic, feature bets on things such as the coin flip or the Super Bowl Halftime Show.
How to read a football pool sheet?
![down arrow](https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.runyourpool.com/articles/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/12215336/img_68483.png)
In Squares formats, football pool sheets include a grid, where one team is the column and one is the row. Winners are determined at the end of each quarter when the last number in the team’s score (on each side) is matched to the numbers on the grid, and the intersecting square wins.