Table of Contents
By Alex Lauzon from the “Course of Life” podcast
HOLLYWOOD’S BIGGEST NIGHT – MY BIGGEST WINNERS
The 2023 awards season culminates with the 95th Annual Academy Awards, where The Oscars are handed out to Hollywood’s best and brightest from the past year. The March gala has had Golden Globe winners that are reappearing as favorites, but there are also some up-for-grab categories and a surprise that I’m forecasting for Sunday night.
My last show betting preview for the Grammys were candidly NOT the results I like to bring home on awards night, but I’m here to avenge the disappointment and close out Awards Season with a bang. I will glean from my winning Golden Globes predictions of January, as they are often indicators of who could be walking out with the hardware come Sunday night. With that, let’s get to the biggest categories of the night and who I like to go home a winner:
BEST PICTURE
Despite “Banshees of Insherin” (+1400) hoisting the Golden Globe in precisely this category a couple of months ago, all of the downward momentum and Vegas steam is on Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (-1100) to win best picture and steal the final on-stage moments of the night. Typically logic tells you to follow the Globes winner here and it does come at a good value, but the overwhelming odds shifted towards the favorite are impossible to ignore
Alex’s Play: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (no bet)
BEST ACTOR
Brendan Fraser’s portrayal of an overweight father looking to spend his dying days reuniting with family gets him in the pole position for Best Actor at -100 odds, ahead of Golden Globe winner Austin Butler from “Elvis” at +135. It’s definitely a two-horse race here, and unlike the previous category, I’m going with the Golden Globe winner to complete the awards season sweep.
Alex’s Play: Austin Butler +135
BEST ACTRESS
Another head-to-head as the odds clearly indicate only two have a chance to win – Michelle Yeoh from “Everything, Everywhere, All at Once” has slightly better odds to win at -140, compared to Cate Blanchett at +100 for “Tar”. While Yeoh won this award in the musical/comedy category at the Globes in January, Blanchett won in the drama category. Based on award history I tend to lean toward the drama winner to take home the Oscars – an anti-musical/comedy bias lives through this show.
Alex’s Play: Cate Blanchett +100
BEST DIRECTOR
While this is a very notable category, there’s absolutely no drama or uncertainty with this pick: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart for “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once” are a commanding favorite, so much so that there’s next to no value betting on them to win…because they will at preposterous -1200 odds.
Alex’s Play: Everything, Everywhere, All At Once (no bet)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
On the other side of the coin, here is the category that is WIDE OPEN to win on the night, featuring three leading ladies in Hollywood all at similar odds: Angela Bassett (+130), Kerry Condon (+225), and Jamie Lee Curtis (+125). This is one of those categories where I’m pulling back on “betting with my heart here” – Bassett won the Golden Globe so the sweep feels like too much. Curtis is a lifer in Hollywood so her speech would be epic, so on that note, I’ll take Condon as “Banshees of Insherin” has certainly found the stage this season.
Alex’s Play: Kerry Condon +225
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Checking the odds pre-show and not just betting what your eyes told you is crucial in awards season. Here’s another prestigious category where the winner has already been decided according to the odds: Ke Huy Quan from Everything, Everywhere, All At Once is the prohibitive -5000 so you can essentially start walking him up the stage as the nominees are being read.
Alex’s Play: Ke Huy Quan (no bet)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
I’m lastly highlighting this category because in the history of the show, it’s rare that underdogs emerge but when they do it’s often in the Animated + Doc categories. The odds will have you picking “Navalny” at -240 with some freshly squeezed juice on those odds, but here’s my surprise of the night: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed steals in here at +500 odds. The doc tackles the opioid crisis, and there’s nothing The Oscars love more than societal issues during their moment on stage. My dog of the night!
Alex’s Play: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed +700
BONUS PLAYS
Best Costume Design – Elvis -165
Best Sound – Top Gun -800
Best Adapted Screenplay – All Quiet on the Western Front +160
(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
