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Last season, Kansas won the program’s fourth national championship and is aiming to become the first back-to-back mountain climber since Florida did it in 2007. The Jayhawks have already secured their second-straight Big 12 regular season crown with hopes of adding a second Big 12 Tournament title in a row to boot.
In mid-January, KU suffered through a three-game losing skid that raised some eyebrows, but the team entered March on a seven-contest positive streak. Jalen Wilson is one of the nation’s best scorers, Dajuan Harris is an elite point guard, and this team has so many ways to hurt you. Kansas will be a common national champion pick across America’s brackets.
Last National Championship: 2022
Last Final Four: 2022
2023 Title Odds: +850 (as of March 2, 2023)
Why Kansas Will Make a Run
Bill Self is one of the best coaches in the country. In his 19 prior seasons with Kansas, he’s achieved two national championships, four Final Fours, nine Elite Eights, and 11 second weekend showings. Even before coming to Lawrence, his Illinois and Tulsa days produced two Elite Eights and three Sweet 16s. Self’s career accomplishments are undeniable, and you cannot count out any team he coaches.
This iteration of Kansas shares the ball very well, ranking in the NCAA’s top 10 in assists per game (17.1). Harris is a huge part of that – the guard has an assist percentage of 31.3 and is second in the Big 12 in dimes per outing (6.2). He also takes great care of the basketball and sets the stage for the Jayhawks on the offensive end. Wilson is the best scorer on the team, but Harris’s control would be a massive piece to Kansas accomplishing something no one has in more than 15 years.
Why Kansas Will Exit Early
This isn’t the deepest team you’ll find. There is a steep drop off from the starting five to everyone off the bench, and Self’s allocation of minutes demonstrates his understanding of this issue. That’s not to say Kansas has no talent in its depth, but there’s a reason why four of its starting players all average more than 31 minutes per game. Foul trouble to key players and/or fatigue could play a role in the Jayhawks not reaching their potential.
Kansas also doesn’t get to the line very much. KU is eighth in the Big 12 in both total free throw attempts and free throw attempts per game, meaning it doesn’t efficiently utilize the charity stripe for easy points. If, for whatever reason, shots aren’t falling in a tournament game, it hasn’t been within Kansas’s repertoire to fall back on the free-throw line as a way to generate offense.
What It’ll Take to Win
Kansas finds a lot of points off of steals that turn into quick, easy baskets. Three of its players are posting better than 1.5 steals per night, and the team averages 13 points per contest on the fastbreak, which accounts for 17.1 percent of its regular scoring clip (76.1 points per game). The Jayhawks have to remain aggressive in passing lanes and take their chances to get out in transition. This is how this team prefers to score its easy points rather than at the line.
The brunt of the three-point shooting load is on the shoulders of Gradey Dick, who takes 5.8 per game and makes 40.6 percent of them. Wilson likes to shoot from outside, too, but he’s nowhere near as efficient. Unless someone else massively steps up their game from deep, Dick’s accuracy will be crucial to Kansas winning the national championship. It’s very difficult to win March Madness without some decent success from beyond the arc.
