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The Buffalo Bills (13-3) have home-field advantage in the playoffs against the Miami Dolphins (9-8) in the AFC Wild Card round on Sunday, January 15, 2023 at Highmark Stadium.
The Bills rank sixth in total defense this year (319.1 yards allowed per game), but they’ve been thriving on offense, ranking second-best in the NFL with 397.6 total yards per game. The Dolphins are generating 23.4 points per game on offense this season (11th-ranked). Meanwhile, they are surrendering 23.5 points per game (24th-ranked) on defense.
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Bills vs. Dolphins Picks
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Game Info: Bills vs. Dolphins
- Game Day: Sunday, January 15, 2023
- Game Time: 1:00 PM ET
- TV Channel: CBS
- Location: Orchard Park, New York
- Stadium: Highmark Stadium
Before you place a wager on Buffalo-Miami contest (in which Buffalo is a 10.5-point favorite and the over/under has been set at 44.5 points), here are a few betting insights and trends for Sunday’s game.
Betting Insights for Bills
- So far this season, the Bills have posted an 8-9-0 record against the spread.
- When they have played as at least 10.5-point favorites this season, the Bills are 1-2 against the spread.
- Bills games have gone over the point total on six of 17 occasions (35.3%).
Stats & Insights for Bills
- The Bills own the sixth-ranked defense this year (319.1 yards allowed per game), and they’ve been more effective on offense, ranking second-best with 397.6 yards per game.
- The Bills have been firing on all cylinders this season, as they rank second-best in scoring offense (28.4 points per game) and second-best in scoring defense (17.9 points allowed per game).
- The Bills are compiling 258.1 passing yards per game on offense (seventh in the NFL), and they rank 15th defensively with 214.6 passing yards allowed per game.
- The Bills own the seventh-ranked offense this year in terms of rushing yards (139.5 per game), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking fifth-best with only 104.6 rushing yards allowed per game.
- The Bills rank seventh in third-down defense this season (37.5% third-down percentage allowed), but they’ve been thriving on the offensive side of the ball, ranking best in the NFL with a 50.3% third-down conversion rate.
- The Bills have the seventh-ranked defense this season in terms of yards per play (5.4 yards per play allowed), and they’ve been better on the other side of the ball, ranking third-best with 6.3 yards per play.
- The Bills have forced 27 total turnovers (fourth in NFL) this season and have turned it over 27 times (30th in NFL) for a turnover margin of an even, 15th-ranked in the league.
Best Players for Bills
- Josh Allen: 4,283 PASS YDS / 267.7 YPG / 63.3% / 35 TD / 14 INT / 124 CAR / 762 RUSH YDS / 7 TD
- Devin Singletary: 177 CAR / 819 YDS / 51.2 YPG / 5 TD / 38 REC / 280 YDS / 17.5 YPG / 1 TD
- Stefon Diggs: 108 REC / 1,429 YDS / 89.3 YPG / 11 TD
- Gabriel Davis: 48 REC / 836 YDS / 55.7 YPG / 7 TD
- Dawson Knox: 48 REC / 517 YDS / 34.5 YPG / 6 TD
- Gregory Rousseau: 37 TKL / 10 TFL / 8 SACK / 4 PD
- Tremaine Edmunds: 102 TKL / 5 TFL / 1 SACK / 1 INT / 7 PD
- Jordan Poyer: 63 TKL / 4 TFL / 4 INT / 8 PD
Betting Insights for Dolphins
- The Dolphins have gone 10-8-0 ATS this year.
- The Dolphins have gone over in eight of their 18 games with a set total (44.4%).
Stats & Insights for Dolphins
- The Dolphins rank sixth with 364.5 total yards per contest on offense, and they rank 18th with 337.8 total yards given up per game on defense.
- With 23.4 points per game on the offensive side of the ball, the Dolphins rank 11th in the NFL. Defensively, they rank 24th, giving up 23.5 points per game.
- The Dolphins’ pass offense has been leading the way for the team, as they rank fourth-best in the NFL with 265.4 passing yards per game. In terms of defense, they are ceding 234.8 passing yards per game, which ranks 27th.
- The Dolphins’ run defense has been paving the way for the team, as they rank fourth-best in the NFL with 103 rushing yards surrendered per game. In terms of offense, they are compiling 99.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th.
- The Dolphins rank 24th in the NFL with a 36.2% third-down conversion percentage on offense, and 24th with a 41.6% third-down percentage allowed on defense.
- The Dolphins’ offense has been leading the charge for the team, as they rank second-best in the NFL with 6.4 yards per play. In terms of defense, they are conceding 5.6 yards per play, which ranks 13th.
- The Dolphins have struggled in terms of turnovers, as the team’s turnover margin of -7 is fifth-worst in the NFL.
Best Players for Dolphins
- Tua Tagovailoa: 3,548 PASS YDS / 272.9 YPG / 64.8% / 25 TD / 8 INT
- Raheem Mostert: 181 CAR / 891 YDS / 55.7 YPG / 3 TD / 31 REC / 202 YDS / 12.6 YPG / 2 TD
- Jeff Wilson Jr.: 176 CAR / 860 YDS / 53.8 YPG / 5 TD / 22 REC / 185 YDS / 11.6 YPG / 1 TD
- Tyreek Hill: 119 REC / 1,710 YDS / 100.6 YPG / 7 TD
- Jaylen Waddle: 75 REC / 1,356 YDS / 79.8 YPG / 8 TD
- Trent Sherfield: 30 REC / 417 YDS / 24.5 YPG / 2 TD
- Bradley Chubb: 39 TKL / 5 TFL / 8 SACK / 1 PD
- Elandon Roberts: 104 TKL / 10 TFL / 4.5 SACK
- Jevon Holland: 93 TKL / 1 TFL / 1.5 SACK / 2 INT / 7 PD
