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Week 9 is here and I need a rebound week…BAD!
WEEK 9 – WE’RE HALFWAY THERE
Halfway home on the 2022 NFL Season, which has brought us a surprise unbeaten in the Eagles, a Tom Brady collapse on and off the field, and a lot of questions for the 2021 NFL Draft Quarterback class. A 4-4 record gets you last place in the AFC East for my Patriots, who are one of those teams wondering if they have their guy at the helm. Consequently, 4-4 gets you first place in the NFC South, where up is down and the Bucs forgot how to win football games.
Last week’s board was an indicator that our mojo needs a full flipping for the second half of the NFL Season. It’s not that my premises for wagers have been misguided, it’s that the breaks are definitely NOT going my way on Over/Unders, and it’s time to grit my teeth and bet some sides. Let’s get back to the basics with November picks so we can collect some Holiday shopping money for the season:
THE HEADLINERS
Thursday Night Kickoff
Eagles (-13) @ Texans – The lowly Texans at 1-6 host the lone unbeaten remaining in the league. This is one of those games where I could easily sucker myself into betting Houston plus a million points and still regret it at halftime. It’s likely a stay away for me, but these short week road trips are always a hurdle for even the hottest of NFL teams.
Early Slate
Bills (-13) @ Jets – Another massive spread here in the AFC East, where the Bills are still rolling and the Jets offense looked anemic behind Zach Wilson against the Patriots. Now THIS line I’m much more likely to take the bait on, just because I know how grimy these AFC East tussles can get – The Jets could hang within two scores if Wilson doesn’t throw possessions away.
Patriots (-5.5) vs Colts – An intriguing matchup of two teams with foggy QB situations. Sam Ehlinger is getting a chance to lead the Colts but losing to the Commanders in his debut doesn’t exactly scream “he’s the future!” Meanwhile, Mac Jones plods his way to a win last week in unimpressive fashion, making me wonder what Bailey Zappe would have done in the same scenario. This reeks of a game that is defense-driven, low scoring, and won in the trenches by whichever team runs the ball best in the second half.
Bengals (-8) vs Panthers – Yet another big spread over a score, for a Bengals team fighting injuries on both sides of the ball. Despite losing Chase I think Burrow still chucks it all around the yard, and PJ Walker showed he’s not shying away from competition anytime soon. Do we have a shootout in Cincy on our hands? The Over 43.5 points bet looks tantalizing.
Late Window
Only two late window games, so let’s quickly talk about the 3-5 Bucs (-3) hosting the 3-4 Rams. A strange set of records for the last two Super Bowl winners as we head into week 9, but here we are. The more surprising struggle might actually be the Rams, who can’t find last year’s magic with Matt Stafford. I’ve been continuously thinking: “this week is the Brady bounceback week,” so let’s see if that time finally comes for a TB12 W.
Night Pick of the Week
Chiefs (-12) vs Titans – Both teams have 5-2 records, but the spread clearly indicates that they are not created equally. A big-time “prove it” spot for rookie QB Malik Willis on the road, it seems like too bright of a light for him to tame the Chiefs at Arrowhead. A hard spread to forecast because the Titans might waste a lot of clocks to keep it close.
THE “WHO CARES?” GAME
If you want to watch paint dry in the form of NFL football, Jacksonville always has you covered. This week it’s the lowly Raiders (-1) at 2-5 coming in as a slight favorite. The Jags meanwhile, have to have one eye on the 2023 NFL Draft QB class, wondering if this is as good as it gets for Trevor Lawrence. Remember when he was the biggest can’t-miss prospect in decades? Good luck making it through this one!
WEIRD VIBE PREDICTION OF THE WEEK
The weird vibes, and now the fading of the weird vibes are both off. From here, we’re officially shopping the naming rights to this segment of my preview. With that, this week’s vibe pick is me closing my eyes, scrolling, and finding a line that hopefully makes me cringe.
Falcons/Chargers Over 48.5 for the Ouija board vibe pick.
WEEK 8 RECAP
Well, week 8 was not good. I can’t put enough lipstick on that pig. When your only saving grace on your card is an under in a 24-0 ball game, you know it’s a quiet week for winners. Just because we’re down on the carpet doesn’t mean we’re not getting back up though. Too much time and too many games left to stop firing (responsibly of course).
Week Eight: 1-4 ATS, Season Overall: 19-22-1 ATS
EARLY WEEK 9 NFL PLAYS FOR ALEX
I hinted at it earlier, but I’ll definitely put the Jets +13 on my card. It could even go up as the week goes on, but these AFC tussles are always closer than predicted.
Ehlinger will be a running threat to the Patriots’ defense and manufacture some points, but if the Pats kick less than 5 field goals for all the possessions they’ll be getting Sunday, you would think they can cover -5.5 at home. Give me the Pats -5.5 before their schedule gets tough.
The Vikings are only 3.5-point favorites against the Commanders? That line smells so I’m going the other way and taking Commanders +3.5 in my ugly play of the week.
I’m not so much betting on the QBs to find momentum as I am on the offenses in the Bucs/Rams – so let’s take Over 42 points total.
I’m confident in a Chiefs explosion on Sunday Night Football at home vs the Titans, so let’s also grab Chiefs -12 (Yikes) and sprinkle the Over 46.5 in that one before it goes up.
Other leans: Pats/Colts Over 39.5, Ravens -3
Not in an NFL pick’em pool yet? Create your own today to get in on the action as the season heats up!
EATS AND DEETS
The best crowd: Far and away it’s the Metlife tailgate for Bills mafia descending upon East Rutherford. That parking lot will never be the same.
Goofiest line: Vikings -3.5, something is up there…
Simultaneous screen count: It’s a two screener, one for your team and one for the Redzone. We’re in that midseason flow right about now.
Tailgate pick of the week: It’s leftover Halloween Candy week and EVERYTHING MUST GO.
